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Feb 11, 14:10
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Liquidity is
a) how much free money/balance sheet capacity people have.
b) how expensive leverage is.
Plumbers make a big deal when b) changes by a few basis points because it sounds fancy, but it really doesn't matter that much.
Nobody reduces their leverage overnight https://t.co/9sF7ytXV6l
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Jan 30, 16:23
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Here we go. The voice of the admin: Good Bye SPX
On the flipside, we will get way more cuts than priced https://t.co/TYuvKmGH5H
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Jan 30, 16:20
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Not many will want to hold risk into the w/e. Iran is one thing, but the market will form a narrative around Warsh.
It will be too premature, but if the narrative is falling rates and b/s, asset prices will plunge. Main Street will do well
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Jan 30, 09:57
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Gold can't be a reserve currency because it is too volatile!🤣
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Jan 30, 09:23
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If Warsh becomes chair and reduces the interest rate and balance sheet (the opposite of what Powell did), it will be very good for America, but terrible for Wall Street:
1) The high Fed Funds rate is a stimulus check for the rich, financed by the deficit.
2) The bloated balance
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Jan 29, 18:29
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February is one of the best months for crypto. I think this February will be great, too.
About $100bn in tax refunds to individuals is meeting a bombed-out crypto market.
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Jan 29, 16:09
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Get rdy for the great Iran "deal" headline: No need to attack obviously.
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Jan 29, 15:08
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What happens if as a response of Trump’s blockade on Iran, China does the same to Taiwan?
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Jan 29, 15:04
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The reason of the metals rally https://t.co/pcWPJGp97B
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Jan 29, 14:05
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The metals rally has been accelerated by crypto traders using up to 500x leverage on crypto exchanges for gold and silver.
It is all fun and games until they pivot to oil next (also available on crypto exchanges) and inflation skyrockets
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Jan 28, 14:52
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My money is on Bessent for chair. He runs the show and they will install a lackey into Treasury who can be fired at will, effectively merging the Fed/Treasury. https://t.co/faeuXO37D6
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Jan 27, 15:29
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Money is leaving the U.S. != debasement.
Some may end up in gold and silver, but no guarantee that metals outperform non-USD currencies/bonds
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Jan 27, 13:47
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"Where is Bitcoin?"
It is right where it should be when inflation is slowing, and fewer fiat tokens are created. Gold/silver bugs have it wrong. The same people who totally missed the actual debasement of 2020-2025 because they are focused on whatever b/s the Fed is spoonfeeding https://t.co/2TaYVZgG71
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Jan 27, 08:51
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I remain scepticsl of the gold rally. This is 2010 all over again. Back then it was QE, and now the Fed takeover. Both don’t matter.
What matter is the fiscal deficit and it is shrinking.
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Jan 27, 08:45
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Simple: the dollar is not debased. The silver/gold buyers are boomers who believe the Fed takeover matters.
The dollar has been debased when fiscal policy pumped trillions into retail pockets, and Bitcoin worked fine then. Now, the deficit is actually shrinking and Bitcoin is https://t.co/0XlN6ij8Gz
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Jan 26, 19:24
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Meh, -8.5% in 1 1/2 hours, close enough.
Don't read anything fundamental into these moves. The same people who chased Shiba Inu on 100x leverage are now doing the same with silver. The financial system isn't collapsing https://t.co/2cFHgIDZnG
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Jan 26, 19:03
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Where are all the voices calling that gold can't be a reserve currency because it is too volatile
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Jan 26, 16:46
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With such high leverage in gold/silver (up to 100x), you won't be able to time your short. Momentum will stall, and the dip will be quick, i.e. -10% in under an hour.
Either you in now, or you will miss it
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Jan 26, 16:40
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We have seen this in crypto. People use their unrealized gains as new collateral to lever up further into any dip:
Up 10% on silver, buy more if it dips 5%.
I doubt there is new cash coming in, just leverage. We gonna see a -15/20% day very soon; just like in crypto. https://t.co/YaiO0CW5WH
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Jan 26, 11:29
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More direct investments in Germany.
The recovery is real https://t.co/PBFal46Hy4
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Jan 26, 11:13
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Bitcoin is the one risk asset that doesn't care about repatration and loves a falling $.
U.S. stocks get hit by repatration flows
Foreign stocks get hit by the higher currency (eg Nikkei, DAX)
Foreign bonds do well
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Jan 26, 09:21
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Crypto is dead because these scam coins drain the live out of it.
"U.S. is open for business" can mean two things:
1) Smaller firms can attack large corps moat for the benefit of the consumer
2) Large corps can rip off the consumer without any protection, eg from the SEC https://t.co/NwqDEuiljB
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Jan 26, 09:14
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When the U.S. cash market opens, I expect the $SLV call buyers to come in and move Silver beyond 110 and $SLV beyond 100.
I will short the first batch at ~111-112 and the second batch Tuesday, regardless of price.
The Gold move is already done imho. A last spike to 5120 is https://t.co/GIG1z5jnyP https://t.co/HzvodKWuZb
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Jan 23, 12:08
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Fridays are becoming important for gold and silver as many single options for $GLD and $SLV expire.
It is no coincidence that SLV is pushing to max gamma at 90, and today's expiry is larger than February Opex.
Some call buyers will re-invest their earned premium on Monday.
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Jan 23, 08:55
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The Housing market in Germany is also picking up (Oct/Nov 25 saw very large credit creation). We are on a recovery https://t.co/ZHfmXZfMEB https://t.co/3BX0efnDUL
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Jan 22, 17:57
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Run-it-hot is just a meme, not reality.
I believe it when mfg jobs are picking up https://t.co/ZBg6CXMEQF https://t.co/lAAwPDJxEY
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Jan 21, 10:00
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The run it hot thesis rests entirely on the $1tn (private) credit expansion continuing. Fiscal policy is tightening, and further rate cuts will accelerate this. https://t.co/59lI8vWxHs
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Dec 16, 11:49
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Asian markets are acting scary. I can't help to think that one of JGB/Nikkei/JPY will blow up big next year - best to stay away completely or play the tails via options
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Dec 07, 18:14
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Also Bessent: Huge tax cuts ($500bn higher deficit) will stimulate the economy in 2026
He is not serious and bond yields will make him https://t.co/iVXaRcwsRQ
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Dec 07, 12:49
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The current strategy is to change the message but not the policies. bond yields will look through this and continue to climb. https://t.co/DwyWtQfNoa
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Dec 07, 09:44
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5) Sentiment: Trump, Hassett, and Bessent are trying to fix the inflation problem via gaslighting. Powell tried to bluff the market last FOMC, when he took the 100% December cut off the table. The cut is back on, but yields have still been climbing.
All four have made clear they
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Dec 07, 09:44
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3) Last Friday, the 10-year note future bounced exactly at the 112.5 put wall. While options are less important for treasuries than equities, they still matter. The market is in negative gamma, which amplifies the probability of a larger move. https://t.co/rxXiNkauUJ
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Dec 07, 09:44
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4) NFP: ADP job creation has been weak, but jobless claims remain solid: The No-hiring/firing economy should be "officially" confirmed on the 16th.
Due to the slowing growth of the labor force, the U.S. economy's growth potential is shrinking. Any additional stimulus will
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Dec 07, 09:44
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5 reasons bond yields are going higher over the next two weeks:
1) The (calendar) 2026 deficit is going to increase by $500bn due to the OBBB. The market is looking through the current weakness and front-running the new fiscal impulse: Retail and mid-cap stocks outperforming https://t.co/rIFz6MLj2e
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Dec 07, 09:44
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2) Heavy auction supply next week without 10y/30y maturities and a corporate tax drain mid-December. While corporates store their cash mostly in deposits/MMF/bills, paying taxes is a liquidity drain on the treasury complex - especially front-end. https://t.co/boku9NSIb4
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Dec 05, 19:12
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Yields at large support here and unlikely to break out to new levels before the FOMC. Post FOMC, we will see carnage in the long end https://t.co/CQe5xisQt8
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Dec 05, 15:50
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Oil and gas were the only factors holding yields back as we enter a reflationary 2026. Yields had it with the disinflationary growth fantasy.
30y is going back above 5%
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Dec 05, 11:48
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Good for oil, bad for gold https://t.co/Fwssaju2Ly
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Dec 05, 11:47
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OBBB increases the 2026 calendar year deficit by ~$500bn. The market has begun front-running this:
-higher yields
-rotation out of AI into Consumer stocks, EQW
The effect is blurred by Japanese yields, year-end effects (opecx), short-squeezes but this trend will continue
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Dec 04, 16:40
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The game has gotten too rigged.
Inflation resulting from wage growth is a concern and is typically addressed by central banks.
Nobody fights Inflation from Oligopols, though https://t.co/rFputGNdg8
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Dec 04, 12:08
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10y future reaches negative gamma. I would be surprised if the coordinated anti-Hassett push by WSJ and FT, isn't followed up by selling pressure.
This is about control of the institution Fed, and the establishment won't let go easily
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Dec 03, 20:42
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That 30y JGB auction tmrw will be interesting.
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Dec 03, 14:17
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Chinese Equities are selling off on the report that AI isn't that great when China is the No. 1 counter to the AI giga-Capex story.
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Dec 03, 12:46
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December is the biggest OpeX ever. Should the market stay here, call buyers will collect a nice premium and redeploy (that is just what bulls do), easily cracking 7k at year-end.
The alternative is that the market dismisses the Fed cut and drops heavily into Opex, destroying
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Dec 02, 15:29
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Don't forget Bitcoin is a Momentum asset: Buy high, sell higher. The chase is on into X-Mas.
The sell-off in MSTR and Bitcoin yesterday drew a lot of attention, eg Trump was asked about it, which attracted dip-buyers. They have reignited the momentum, and we will waterfall https://t.co/zBbrt045ZE
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Dec 02, 13:49
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Bitcoin isn't dead. It is just the first to suffer when the money train stops (the deficit is shrinking).
Ultimately, the suffering broadens to other assets, triggering a bailout/increase of the deficit, and Bitcoin is the first to rally
Lenin: Capitalism can't exist without
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Dec 02, 10:49
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The creation of the reserve was smart. Michael Saylor understood the game perfectly.
1) Hard assets will grow ~8% p.a. (equals the debt creation rate). Taking on debt below that rate to buy hard assets (without getting liquidated) is smart
2) The passive buyer is the ultimate https://t.co/CE6umVsPS5
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Nov 28, 16:41
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The Fed won't surprise the market with even a 25bp cut/hike. I would be very surprised, if SCOUTS releases the tariff decision just like any other decision without some coordinated action to calm markets.
Ideally, they release it over the weekend (maybe not Thanksgiving, https://t.co/RlDzDjIcjN
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Nov 28, 16:37
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Markets today either reflect random holiday/month-end trading, or tariffs are about to get rejected by SCOTUS *very* soon - maybe even over the w/e.
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